Trump Dominates Iowa Idi-caucus-y

The overwhelming story line from yesterday’s Iowa caucuses is that the Shitgibbon dominated the GOP vote, and indeed he did. In polling, he was expected to draw in the upper 40% range, but he ended up a little higher, at 51%. The media spun this as “the most lopsided result in history for a non-incumbent”. That also is an accurate statement.

It is, however, a carefully curated statement that is not really good news for Don the Con, as we will see.

But the first order of business is to understand why Captain Bone Spurs exceeded the polling expectation to draw three or four more points than predicted. The answer to that seems clear: historically awful weather, even for Iowa. In a contest that had a predictable outcome, there was every reason to stay home and snuggle by a fire, rather than spend an evening freezing your dingleberries hanging out and worshiping with Trumptards.

It stands to reason that smarter people would surely be more likely to make the choice to stay home than would stupid people. Since stupid people are the core demographic target for the MAGA movement, this produced the Darwinian outcome of a higher than normal proportion of stupid people participating in the caucuses, therefore a higher proportion of Trumpy votes. Idi-caucus-y.

So the big question is not “Why did Dumpster get 51% of the vote?” No, the key question is “Why did Dumpster get only 51%?”

You might ask, “But isn’t 51% a great, historically dominating result? That’s the story line after all!”

Well, not really. You see, usually if there is no incumbent, that means there is a wide-open battle with six or eight or a dozen candidates splitting the vote, like 2016 when there was a field of 12 candidates and PAB collected 24.3%, running in 2nd place behind Ted Cruz. In contrast, yesterday’s caucus was a special case, because while technically PAB is not an incumbent, he is a former “president”. This is not your normal non-incumbent, and he was running against a field of really only three (himself, Nikki Haley, and Meatball). There were other names on the ballot, but they were essentially dead in the water and already out of the race, even if not officially.

For a point of comparison, the Orange Messiah collected a whopping 97% of the Iowa caucus vote in 2020, but the media doesn’t mention that because if they lump the 2020 contest into the “incumbent” bucket and lump the current contest with the same candidate into the “non-incumbent” bucket, it produces a much more click-worthy headline. Now that journalism is dead, this is the way the media measures things.

A better, and perhaps more meaningful presentation of the same results would be “Trump earns only 51% of Iowa caucus votes, an historically bad performance by a former president, and barely half of what he got in 2020”.

Along those same lines, a caucus entrance poll by the Washington Post revealed that 43% of Haley voters would vote for Biden over Trump. It also showed that 49% of Haley voters and 33% of DeSantis voters would consider a criminal conviction to be disqualifying for the Shitheel. And remember, this is the reddest of red demographics.

Nobody in his Jupiter-sized orbit will tell Il Douche that he has no clothes (eeek!) and the media will continue to pump oxygen into his tent without concern for democracy and the rule of law if it will help with their ad revenue. But the news out of Iowa is more bad than good for the soon to be convicted felon. The true cultists will never tire of their messiah, just as in any religion, but plenty of people on the fringes may end up staying home, and he can’t afford that.

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HOS
Noble Member
HOS(@hos)
1 month ago

Thanks for the data and analysis on Iowa, nice read! Bullseye on the media sucks point.

New Hampshire is next up on Tuesday. I spoke with a friend who lives there today. A Biden PAC is running a write-in campaign, he’s not on the Democratic ballot. The expectation is that he’ll win the nomination. Let’s hope so.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-isnt-on-the-ballot-in-new-hampshires-primary-heres-why

x-ray Mike
Noble Member
x-ray Mike(@x-ray-mike)
1 month ago

Thanks for that. To be fair to the OS, at least he can identify a picture of a whale from a lineup of other animals.

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